Chappell Roan won the best new artist Grammy in February.
Kevin Mazur/Getty Images
Entertainment
There’s No Clear Frontrunner for 2026 Best New Artist Grammy — But Who Has the Best Chance?
The 2025 race for the best new artist Grammy earlier this year was a heavyweight bout. In one corner was Chappell Roan, the singular superstar who had been dazzling huge festival crowds for months; in the other was Sabrina Carpenter, the former Disney Channel personality with multiple ubiquitous radio smashes. Both pop dynamos had been nominated in all of the Big Four general categories, and for best new artist, they were surrounded by potential spoilers, including Shaboozey, whose “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” had logged the most weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100 in 2024; Teddy Swims, whose “Lose Control” eventually broke the Hot 100 longevity record; and other new-school stars like Benson Boone, Doechii and RAYE. Ultimately, Roan emerged victorious — and delivered an instantly memorable acceptance speech that advocated for artists’ wages and health care.
Eight months later, a fresh class of best new artist hopefuls is eager for such a moment at the 68th annual Grammys — but in a race that looks nothing like the previous one. Whereas the 2025 best new artist competition was unusually stacked, the 2026 trophy appears fully up for grabs, with very few sure-thing nominees by the time the eligibility period closed at the end of August.
Expect plenty of jockeying for votes across label groups, considering how, 60 years after The Beatles took home the award, it remains one of the industry’s most coveted co-signs of rising talent. “[Best new artist is] still a pretty strong indicator of future success,” says Joe Hadley, global head of music partnerships and audience at Spotify, which has hosted a Grammy party showcasing the best new artist nominees in recent years. Hadley cites recent winners like Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo as well as ’90s icons such as Mariah Carey and Lauryn Hill. “They were [awarded] early on, in a different era, and they’re still superstars. And I genuinely believe that, if you look at the recent best new artist winners, a lot of them will still be superstars 20, 30 years from now.”
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While the loaded 2025 class resulted from an onslaught of major new pop stars in 2024, over the past year, the Billboard charts have largely been run by long-established artists. At the top of the Billboard 200, major releases from Morgan Wallen, Tyler, The Creator, Bad Bunny and Playboi Carti have dominated; Kendrick Lamar and SZA topped the albums chart separately while scoring the longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 hit of 2025 so far with the collaboration “Luther.” In addition, the penthouse of the Hot 100 has been unusually stagnant over the past year, with smashes remaining in the top 10 for months on end. Lamar’s “Not Like Us,” Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” and Boone’s “Beautiful Things” would be major contenders at the 2026 Grammys — had they not all competed at the 2025 ceremony.
The biggest exception is “Ordinary,” the stomping shout-along from singer-songwriter Alex Warren that exploded following a live performance on the Netflix series Love Is Blind and has spent 10 total weeks ruling the Hot 100. Warren — whose debut album, You’ll Be Alright, Kid, scored a top 10 debut upon its July release — could be considered a front-runner at the 2026 Grammys, especially after winning best new artist at the MTV Video Music Awards in September. Yet he’s also competing with recent history: A male artist hasn’t won best new artist since Chance the Rapper in 2017, and in the 21st century, the only other rock-adjacent male-led act to emerge victorious was Bon Iver in 2012.
None of Warren’s potential competition has a hit as big as “Ordinary,” but many have enjoyed mainstream moments. While 20-year-old alt-pop newcomer sombr has scored a pair of monthslong streaming smashes in “Back to Friends” and “Undressed,” neither has reached the top 10 of the Hot 100 yet. Ravyn Lenae reached the top 10 in July with her artful R&B single “Love Me Not,” although the viral track remains her only career entry on the chart. Despite featuring on Bad Bunny’s 2022 album of the year nominee, Un Verano Sin Ti, alt-pop band The Marías, who have soared this year with “No One Noticed,” are eligible for best new artist in 2026; R&B breakout Leon Thomas’ studio output prior to this eligibility year may make the “Mutt” star a question mark for the category. Other artists have had breakthrough hits in recent months — Gigi Perez with “Sailor Song,” Lola Young with “Messy,” Jessie Murph with “Blue Strips” — that they hope have endured long enough to punch their cards to the big dance.
After all, a best new artist nomination or win still matters in the streaming era, particularly for those who aren’t household names. When a left-of-center artist takes home the top prize, the effect can be transformative: After jazz artist Samara Joy won in 2023, her weekly streams skyrocketed (from 1.8 million the week before the ceremony to 6.9 million the week after, according to Luminate) and led to her most productive touring year to date.
At the 2025 ceremony, all eight best new artist nominees performed during the telecast, and seven of them earned significant streaming gains — led by Doechii, who more than doubled her weekly total (from 20.7 million to 42.7 million) thanks to her dynamic medley of “Catfish” and “Denial Is a River.” Even the figures for the heavily streamed Roan and Carpenter jumped in the week following the ceremony, by 18.8 million and 8.3 million, respectively. The field of nominees “saw a pretty significant lift in terms of consumption and general awareness,” Hadley says.
Should the Grammys decide to once again present performances by every best new artist nominee, plenty of others who may seem like long shots for the prize may have the chance to set foot on the stage of Los Angeles’ Crypto.com Arena. Can Addison Rae’s critically acclaimed debut album help the former influencer make the leap? Can a rising country star like Ella Langley, Megan Moroney or Zach Top take home the genre’s first win in the category since Zac Brown Band in 2010? Will any K-pop artist finally become the first to nab a nomination? Girl group HUNTR/X from the Netflix phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters has a No. 1 smash in “Golden” — and even though the act is fictional, no one can be counted out of this topsy-turvy race.
This story appears in the Oct. 4, 2025, issue of Billboard.
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Why did a judge dismiss Drake’s defamation lawsuit against Universal Music Group (UMG) over Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us”? Because, legal experts say, it never made much sense.
Drake’s case claimed he was defamed by the diss track, arguing that millions of people believed Kendrick when the Compton MC called his rival a “certified pedophile.” But in the wake of a judge’s ruling dismissing the case at the earliest stage, legal experts tell Billboard that Drake’s case was doomed from the start.
“Holding a rapper or their producer liable for lyrics in a diss track seemed contrary to basic defamation law from the beginning,” says Roy Gutterman, the director of the Newhouse School’s Tully Center for Free Speech at Syracuse University.
When Drake first filed his case, it prompted ridicule in world of hip-hop. The idea of hiring lawyers and going to court over a diss track felt antithetical to rap music, a genre rooted so heavily in authenticity, credibility and, at times, heated rivalries: “What part of the game is that?” asked A$AP Rocky in an interview last month. “What type of shit is that?”
But more quietly, legal experts had long been arguing that such a lawsuit was also antithetical to the world of defamation law and constitutionally-protected free speech — where courts are willing to restrict outright lies, but give wide leeway to opinions and artistic expression.
Way back in May 2024, as Kendrick and Drake exchanged ugly accusations in a series of scathing songs, legal commentators began to wonder if either rapper might have the audacity to take the fight to court: “Has anyone ever filed a defamation lawsuit over a diss track before?” joked Matt Ford, a legal reporter at the New Republic.
Months before such a case was actually filed, it felt downright unthinkable. No rapper would ever risk their reputation to file a libel case over an insulting lyric, right? But Billboard decided to poll the experts anyway, asking how such a hypothetical case a might go. The answer was pretty clear-cut: It would be very hard to win a defamation case over a rap battle.
“The public … has to believe that the speaker is being serious, and not just hurling insults in a diss fight,” Dori Hanswirth, a veteran media law litigator at the firm Arnold & Porter, told Billboard at the time. “The context of this song-by-song grudge match tends to support the idea that this is rhetorical, and a creative way to beef with a rival.”
That legal landscape didn’t scare off Drake’s attorneys, who went ahead and filed such a case in January, accusing UMG (but not Kendrick himself) of defamation over “Not Like Us.” In later filings, they said many fans had, on the contrary, taken Lamar’s lyric quite literally: “Millions of people, all over the world, did understand the [song] as a factual assertion that plaintiff is a pedophile.”
As Drake battled in court, more lawyers voiced skepticism. In a brief filed May, a group of legal scholars said the case was legally “faulty” and urged the judge to “consider rap music’s history and artistic conventions.” Diss tracks are not seen as “a series of news reports,” they said, but as “hyperbole, bluster, and demonstrations of disrespect” that are “designed to entertain and impress their audience.”
When Judge Jeannette Vargas finally ruled on the case on Thursday (Oct. 9), she followed precisely that line of logic that experts had been arguing from the start. The judge said that context was crucial — and that diss tracks were an artistic medium in which fans would expect “hyperbolic vituperations” rather than “sober facts.”
“The recording was published as part of a heated public feud, in which both participants exchanged progressively caustic, inflammatory insults and accusations,” Judge Vargas wrote. “This is precisely the type of context in which an audience may anticipate the use of epithets, fiery rhetoric or hyperbole rather than factual assertions.”
In reaching that conclusion, the judge was hardly breaking new legal ground. Instead, she was just sticking to the legal consensus — one that the experts say they were predicting from the start.
“The court recognized the nature of the artistic expression and the rap genre itself,” Gutterman, the Syracuse professor, tells Billboard. “The First Amendment provides lots of protection for statements of opinion as well as artistic expression. This decision reflects that.”
For the history of Drake and Kendrick Lamar’s feud, read through Billboard’s timeline below.
Entertainment
Forrest Frank, Brandon Lake, Jelly Roll, Leanna Crawford Win Big at 2025 GMA Dove Awards
The GMA Dove Awards celebrated many of the biggest songs and artists of the year when the annual awards ceremony aired on Friday night (Oct. 10) on TBN. This year’s awards show took place at Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena (the awards show had previously been held at Lipscomb University’s Allen Arena for several years).
With the theme “Creation Sings,” it was appropriate that the evening both started and concluded with two elements: the evening began with For King & Country, Taylor Hill, Africa Nashvlle, and Stage Ready performing a new song, “World on Fire,” as flames danced across the stage.
The show was filled with uplifting singing, all aimed a sharing a faith-filled message. Being in Music City, a various sounds were represented during the evening, including rap/hip-hop, Southern Gospel, Spanish-language, pop, and country.
New artist of the year winner Leanna Crawford performed her hit “Still Waters (Psalm 23),” while host Tauren Wells and Gio also offered up a sterling, energetic rendition of “Let the Church Sing,” complete with staging that included pews and a church podium, as he sang joined by a choir.
Josiah Queen performed “Dusty Bibles” and “The Prodigal” while Elevation Worship and Elevation Rhythm performed “Goodbye Yesterday” and “I Have Decided.” Other performers included Fred Hammond with The Choir Room.
Josiah Queen performs at the DOVE Awards. Photo: Blue Amber
Blue Amber Photo
Israel & New Breed teamed with Unified Sound, Adrienne Bailon-Houghton, Alex Campos, Christine D’Clario, Josh and Waleska Morales, Ingrid Rosario, Janina Rosado, Lucia Parker, Nate Diaz and Aaron Moses for a charismatic, uplifting performance of “Coritos de Fuego,” while flying several flags including flags representing Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Forrest Frank was awarded the biggest honor of the evening, artist of the year, as well as accolades for pop/contemporary recorded song of the year (“YOUR WAY’S BETTER”) and pop/contemporary album of the year (CHILD OF GOD). Frank had previously released a video on social media stating he was not attending the awards ceremony, and was not present at the ceremony.
The Brandon Lake/Jelly Roll collaboration “Hard Fought Hallelujah” took home honors for song of the year, bluegrass/country/roots recorded song of the year and short form music video. Lake took home five total awards — he also won songwriter of the year-artist, and worship recorded song of the year, for “I Know a Name” with Elevation Worship and Chris Brown.
“I’m not sure how much I belong speaking up here right now…I ain’t been this nervous since I went to criminal court, y’all,” Jelly Roll said as he took the stage alongside Lake as song of the year winners for “Hard Fought Hallelujah.” “This is a real thing for me….I was thinking about Matthew, when he talks about ‘the least,’ when he said, ‘When I was hungry, you fed me, when I was thirsty you gave me water, when I was in jail you came and visited me and I realized I am standing here because people took the time with the least. I want to give this message as clear as I can…the world is hearing about Jesus like they haven’t in decades right now. There is a revival happening in the United States of America, where you can’t go on a corner and not hear about Jesus right now,” he said, encouraging those listening, “They’ve heard of Jesus, now go show them Jesus.”
Leanna Crawford at the GMA Dove Awards. Photo: Tessa Voccola
@tessavoccola
Hulvey accepted the rap/hip-hop album of the year accolade for his project Cry, saying, “Glory to the father. And GMA, thank y’all for doing things spirit-filled, for showing the world that we can love Him through our music.”
Carrie Underwood joined Ben Fuller on a rendition of their collaboration “If It Was Up to Me.” To commemorate the Opry 100 celebration happening this year as the Grand Ole Opry celebrates its centennial anniversary, Opry members Steven Curtis Chapman, Vince Gill and Lady A highlighted the longstanding ties between country music and faith-filled messages, performing a version of Hank Williams Sr.’s “I Saw the Light,” as well as Lady A’s “I Run to You,” Gill’s “Go Rest High on That Mountain” and the country classic “Will The Circle Be Unbroken.”
CeCe Winans won two honors during the evening, including Christmas recorded song of the year, for “Joy to The World.” In winning Gospel worship recorded song of the year for “Come Jesus Come” with Shirley Caesar, Winans thanked Caesar, telling the crowd, “I love her, I grew up listening to her, so to be able to sing with her was just amazing..I’m honored to do what we all get a chance to do,” adding, “God is faithful…we have an awesome responsibility and that is to bring as many people as we can…Let’s remember why we do what we do, so God would be glorified, and so that as many souls as possible would come to know who Jesus is.” Winans also sang “Come Jesus Come” during the evening, turning in one of the most inspired, powerful performances.
The evening closed with another surprise, as Jon Batiste joined Jelly Roll and Brandon Lake to perform “Hard Fought Hallelujah.” They performed on the main stage at Bridgestone, as rain poured down over the performers onstage.
CeCe Winans at the GMA Dove Awards. Photo: Tessa Voccola
@tessavoccola
See the list of winners in select categories below:
Artist of the year
Brandon Lake
CeCe Winans
WINNER: Forrest Frank
Josiah Queen
Lauren Daigle
Phil Wickham
Song of the year
“Counting My Blessings” (Writers) Seph Schlueter, Jordan Sapp, Jonathan Gamble
“Good Day” (Writer) Forrest Frank
“Goodbye Yesterday” (Writers) Gracie Binion, Steven Furtick, Mitch Wong, Josh Holiday
WINNER: “Hard Fought Hallelujah” (Writers) Brandon Lake, Jelly Roll, Steven Furtick, Chris Brown, Benjamin William Hastings
“Still Waters (Psalm 23)” (Writers) Leanna Crawford, Jonathan Gamble, Justin Mark Richards
“That’s My King” (Writers) Kellie Gamble, Jess Russ, Lloyd Nicks, Taylor Agan
“That’s Who I Praise” (Writers) Brandon Lake, Steven Furtick, Benjamin William Hastings, Zac Lawson, Micah Nichols
“The Prodigal” (Writers) Josiah Queen, Jared Marc
“The Truth” (Writers) Megan Woods, Matthew West, Jeff Pardo
“Up!” (Writers) Forrest Frank, Connor Price
New artist of the year
Abbie Gamboa
Caleb Gordon
WINNER: Leanna Crawford
Patrick Mayberry
Strings and Heart
Worship recorded song of the year
“At The Altar” – ELEVATION RHYTHM, Tiffany Hudson, Abbie Gamboa
WINNER: “I Know A Name” – Elevation Worship, Chris Brown, Brandon Lake
“Mighty Name Of Jesus (Live)” – Hope Darst, The Belonging Co.
“The King Is In The Room” – Phil Wickham
“What A God (Live)” – SEU Worship, ONE HOUSE, Kenzie Walker, Chelsea Plank, Roosevelt Stewart
Pop/contemporary recorded song of the year
“Desperate” – Jamie MacDonald
“GOODBYE YESTERDAY” – ELEVATION RHYTHM, Grace Binion
“Still Waters (Psalm 23)” – Leanna Crawford
“That’s Who I Praise” – Brandon Lake
WINNER: “YOUR WAY’S BETTER” – Forrest Frank
Gospel worship recorded song of the year
WINNER: “Come Jesus Come” – CeCe Winans, Shirley Caesar
“God Is In Control” – DOE
“One Hallelujah” – Tasha Cobbs Leonard, Erica Campbell, Israel Houghton (ft. Jonathan McReynolds, Jekalyn Carr)
“Rest On Us (Flow) [Live]” – Naomi Raine
“Yahweh” – Jason Nelson (ft. Melvin Crispell III)
Spanish language recorded song of the year
“Al Estar Aquí” – Marcos Witt, TAYA
“ALGORITMO” – Gabriel EMC, Alex Zurdo
WINNER: “Coritos de Fuego” – Israel & New Breed, Unified Sound (ft. Adrienne Bailon-Houghton, Nate Diaz, Aaron Moses, Lucia Parker)
“Sigue Caminando” – Sarai Rivera
“Worthy” – Blanca (ft. Yandel)
Rap/hip-hop album of the year
Anike – Anike
Christlike, California – Mile Minnick
WINNER: CRY – Hulvey
SORRY, I CHANGED (AGAIN) – Aaron Cole
The People We Became – nobigdyl.
Southern gospel recorded song of the year
“If Not For Christ” – The Whisnants
“Love ‘Em Where They Are” – Gaither Vocal Band
“Man On The Middle Cross” – Scotty Inman (ft. Jason Crabb, Charlotte Ritchie)
WINNER: “That’s What Faith Looks Like” – Karen Peck & New River
“You’ll Find Him There (Live)” – Ernie Haase & Signature Sound
Bluegrass/country/roots recorded song of the year
“(More Than A) Hollow Hallelujah” – The Isaacs
WINNER: “Hard Fought Hallelujah” – Brandon Lake, Jelly Roll
“If It Was Up To Me” – Ben Fuller, Carrie Underwood
“There’s a Hole in the Heart” – The Nelons
“There’s a River” – High Road (ft. Jaelee Roberts)
Feature film of the year
For the One
Reagan
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever
The Forge
WINNER: The King of Kings
Television series of the year
God. Family. Football.
House of David
Jesus: Refugee, Renegade, Redeemer with Bear Grylls
WINNER: The Chosen
When Hope Calls
Neil Young is pulling his music from Amazon, the legendary singer-songwriter revealed in a blog post published on his personal website on Wednesday (Oct. 8).
In an apparent protest against the Trump administration, Young wrote, “The time is here. FORGET AMAZON,” under a header that includes the words, “BEZOS SUPPORTS THIS GOVERNMENT,” a reference to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.
“Soon my music will not be there,” Young continued of Amazon. “It is easy to buy local. Support your community. Go to the local store. Don’t go back to the big corporations who have sold out America.”
The revelation came in a post that included a larger call by Young for people to discontinue shopping at Amazon and the upscale grocery chain Whole Foods, which the online retail giant acquired in 2017. He also seemed to call for a boycott of Facebook, writing “FORGET FACEBOOK” under a logo of the social media platform’s parent company, Meta. In August, Young left Facebook after a Reuters report claimed Meta had allowed AI chatbots to communicate with minors using “romantic or sensual” language.
“We all have to give up something to save America from the Corporate Control Age it is entering,” Young continued. “They need you to buy from them. Don’t.”
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The singer also referenced the current shutdown of the U.S. government, writing, “They shut down our government your income your safety your family’s health security. Take America Back together, stop buying from the big corporations support local business. Do the right thing. Show who you are.”
Young has been openly critical of President Trump over the years. Last month, he released the song “Big Crime” with his band Chrome Hearts that railed against recent actions by the president — who is never mentioned by name — with lyrics like, “No more money to the fascists/ The billionaire fascists/ Time to blackout the system/ No more great again.”
Young’s music remained available on Amazon Music at the time of publishing. Representatives for Amazon Music and Young’s label, Warner Music/Reprise, did not immediately return requests for comment.
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This isn’t the first time Young has boycotted a digital music provider. In January 2022, the star pulled his catalog from Spotify over its lucrative deal with Joe Rogan, through which it retained exclusive rights to, but not ownership of, the host’s wildly popular Joe Rogan Experience podcast. In a post on his website at the time, Young accused Rogan of spreading “misinformation” about the COVID vaccine on the podcast. “They can have Rogan or Young. Not both,” he wrote.
Young’s stance inspired several other artists to remove their catalogs from the service, including Joni Mitchell and Young’s Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young bandmates David Crosby, Graham Nash and Stephen Stills. Young restored his music to the streaming giant in March 2024 following the expiration of its exclusive deal with Rogan. The previous September, Billboard estimated that Young’s decision to remove his catalog from Spotify cost him roughly $300,000 in lost recorded music and publishing royalties up to that point.
More recently, artists including Massive Attack, King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard, Deerhoof and Sylvan Esso have pulled their catalogs from Spotify over founder Daniel Ek‘s reported $1 billion investment into defense company Helsing, which sells AI software to inform military decisions.
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