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Spotify’s Stock Tumbled After Its Mixed Q2 Earnings — But Analysts See the Bigger Picture

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Some earnings results are more difficult to interpret than others, and Spotify’s were no exception. Like Universal Music Group’s Q2 earnings, which contained a jumble of metrics headed in opposite directions, the streaming giant’s results were a mixed bag of wins and losses — a contrast to previous quarters when the metrics were in much better alignment.

The market seemed to take the Spotify results poorly, as the company’s share price dropped more than 11% following Tuesday’s earnings release. (Importantly, a pullback of that scope isn’t a surprise given Spotify’s share price was up 112% over the last year through Monday, July 28.) Analysts, however, were more sanguine and focused on the company’s long-term prospects rather than the quarter-to-quarter bumpiness.

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Some of the factors that influenced Spotify’s mixed quarter were under its control (subscriber growth, lower-than-expected advertising performance). But some factors were out of its control (foreign exchange losses) while others were a combination of external and internal forces (higher stock-based compensation expense related to Spotify’s soaring share price). That’s a lot to digest.

Spotify’s earnings results highlighted the tension between investors’ desire for neat, linear growth and the untidy realities for companies that report earnings every three months. For a variety of reasons, some quarters will be better than others, and CEO Daniel Ek encouraged investors “to be prepared” for those instances where Spotify spends more money to grow the business over the long term.

A drop in advertising prices, for example, might spur Spotify to “double or triple” its marketing expense, Ek explained. “We generally expect to see more efficiencies as we’re leveraging better and better tools,” he said, “but sometimes that efficiency may mean that the right thing is to actually spend more in the short term to then get it back in the long term.” Translation: The path to success isn’t a straight line.

Equity analysts, who love a clean narrative as much as anybody, tried to make sense of the contrasting indicators. J.P. Morgan analysts called it a “messy” quarter for its mix of positives and negatives. Some analysts slightly lowered their forecasts for revenue and operating income. Everybody pointed to the fact that Spotify will encounter some bumps in the road as it makes investments (which are a drag on earnings) in pursuit of long-term growth (which, to Ek’s point, could help earnings down the road).

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But there was nothing in Spotify’s results and executives’ comments that changed analysts’ overall theses. Investors want to see year-over-year growth every quarter, but analysts know that isn’t realistic. In their notes to investors, analysts focused on long-term opportunities to attract subscribers, benefits from current investments and Spotify’s ability to generate additional revenue.

Analysts believe that Spotify will continue to succeed if it makes the platform more engaging. Some of them homed in on two statistics that Spotify mentioned during the earnings call: 350 million users have streamed a video podcast, and video consumption is growing 20 times faster than audio-only consumption. Spotify’s investments in AI could also lead to better engagement. Spotify now has AI playlists in 40 countries, and user engagement with its AI DJ has “nearly doubled” in the last year, Gustav Söderström said during Tuesday’s earnings call.

Another factor in long-term growth is Spotify’s ability to generate revenue in different ways. For most of its history, Spotify has made money selling ads and subscriptions based on music listening. That has changed in recent years, and J.P. Morgan analysts believe the company has the ability to improve monetization outside of the record label/music publisher royalty structure. In other words, podcasts and audiobooks have the potential to help drive revenue without giving 70% of that revenue to music rights holders.

In the end, analysts’ valuation models didn’t change much, if at all. Guggenheim lowered its price target to $800 from $840 and maintained its buy rating. J.P. Morgan maintained its $740 price target. Cantor Fitzgerald left its $640 price target unchanged and reiterated its neutral rating. Bernstein kept its $840 price target and outperform rating. There’s a $200 variance in price targets within those four examples. But considering Spotify closed Friday at $627.15, it’s clear all the analysts feel there is upside for investors willing to hold on through occasional rough terrain.  

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Tim Dillon Fired From Riyadh Comedy Festival for Saudi Slavery Remarks: ‘They Didn’t Like That’

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Tim Dillon will not be traveling to the Riyadh Comedy Festival next month. The California comedian and host of The Tim Dillon Show podcast says he was fired from the Oct. 8 Saudi Arabia festival for comments he made about the country on Joe Rogan‘s podcast.

Besides losing a $375,000 payday (an amount Dillon confirmed to Rogan), he also lost a nearby warm-up gig in Dubai two nights before his Riyadh appearance after mixing up the Arab emirate with Abu Dhabi (the rival cities are both part of the United Arab Emirates).

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“I mixed them up — apparently this is a big deal over there. This is a real problem,” he said on a recent episode of his podcast. “This is not a malicious slander. It’s a mistake.”

The Riyadh Comedy Festival — which mostly takes place at the Bakr Al-Sheddi Theatre and ANB Arena from Sept. 25 to Oct. 9, features a number of top tier comedians including Dave Chappelle, Bill Burr, Gabriel Iglesias, Aziz Ansari, Kevin Hart, Jeff Ross, Chris Distefano, Tom Segura, Jo Koy, Sam Morril, Hannibal Buress, Andrew Schultz, Sebastian Maniscalco, Whitney Cummings, Jimmy Carr, Louis CK, Pete Davidson, Russell Peters and Chris Tucker.

“Supposedly, MBS is a fan of mine,” Dillon said two weeks ago on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, referring to Saudi head of state Mohammed Bin Salman.

Dillon was reportedly fired from the festival for claiming that Saudi Arabia relies on slave labor — a controversial take on the country’s foreign laborers laws that some groups, including Human Rights Watch, have criticized as “slavery-like.” Legally, slavery was abolished in the Kingdom in the 1960s.

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Dillon said the slavery jokes were a misunderstanding with his Saudi hosts, saying on his podcast, “I was defending them for having slaves. I literally said, ‘Slaves are hard workers and for the most part agreeable.’ But they didn’t like that.”

“You can literally support somebody too much,” he added. “In life, this happens. Too many compliments; too much support — and then they turn on you.”

He clarified his comments further, noting, “If i was a slave — not that I want to be one, but if I was and I built this really nice thing, I might say to my slave children, ‘Daddy built that,'” concluding, “Apparently this got to the people in Saudi Arabia and they were unhappy about it.”

The Riyadh Comedy Festival opens Sept. 25 with performances by Burr, Maz Jobrani and Andrew Santino and Bobby Lee from the Bad Friends podcast. More here.

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Wilson Phillips, Kenny Loggins & More to Perform at Charity Concert Honoring Brian Wilson & The Beach Boys

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Wilson Phillips, Kenny Loggins, David Pack of Ambrosia and more are set to perform at a charity concert celebrating the music of Brian Wilson and The Beach Boys on Saturday, Sept. 27 at the Granada Theatre in Santa Barbara.

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Wilson Phillips features two of Wilson’s daughters, Carnie and Wendy Wilson, as well as Chynna Phillips, the daughter of John and Michelle Phillips. The concert will also feature Brian Wilson’s grandchildren, so it will spotlight three generations of the Wilson family.

The concert, dubbed An All-Star Tribute to the Music of Brian Wilson & Songs of The Beach Boys, will feature the Folk Orchestra of Santa Barbara. Other guest performers are expected to include The Honeys; former members of The Beach Boys and the Brian Wilson Band; and keyboardist Don Randi (The Wrecking Crew); with appearances by Rosemary Butler (Jackson Browne), Ken Stacey (Elton John), Hunter Hawkins (Kenny Loggins), Carly Smithson (American Idol), Alisan Porter (The Voice) and poet Stephen J. Kalinich. These acts will be backed by The Tribe Band, who will perform an array of Beach Boys favorites.

The show begins at 7:30 p.m. Here’s a link for tickets. VIP packages are also available.

Proceeds will be donated to Adam’s Angels, a local group of volunteers, and the Surfrider Foundation of Santa Barbara, dedicated to the protection and enjoyment of the world’s oceans and beaches.

Brian Wilson died on June 11 at age 82. He was the third member of the fabled group to pass, following brothers Dennis in 1983 at age 39 and Carl in 1998 at age 51.

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AI Artist Xania Monet, Diddy Sentencing Looms, Ticketmaster Lawsuit & More Music Law News

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THE BIG STORY: If you needed another clear sign that artificial intelligence is seeping into every aspect of American cultural life, here’s one: An AI artist just signed a record deal, the hallowed milestone of success for any emerging musician.

As first reported by Billboard last week, Xania Monet — the avatar of a woman named Telisha Jones who writes her own lyrics but uses Suno to create the music — inked a record contract worth millions. The deal has quickly become the talk of the industry, including from stars who have spoken out, including Kehlani, who said: “I don’t respect it.”

But…what exactly is a label buying here? It remains unclear the extent to which you can secure intellectual property rights to AI-generated songs, raising hurdles for monetizing them. And platforms like Suno are still facing trillion-dollar infringement lawsuits that essentially claim the technology itself is illegal. For more, go read our full story.

You’re reading The Legal Beat, a weekly newsletter about music law from Billboard Pro, offering you a one-stop cheat sheet of big new cases, important rulings and all the fun stuff in between. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, go subscribe here.

Other top stories this week…

BLIGE CASE TOSSED – A federal judge dismissed a lawsuit against Universal Music Group claiming Mary J. Blige’s enduring 1992 hit “Real Love” infringed the oft-sampled 1973 funk song “Impeach the President” by the Honey Drippers, which has been used by Run-DMC, Dr. Dre, Doja Cat and many others over the years. The judge said the two songs were so different that nobody would hear the earlier song: “The songs do not sound the same.”

DIDDY SENTENCING – Attorneys for Sean “Diddy” Combs urged a federal judge to sentence him to just 14 months in prison on his prostitution convictions, asking him to reject the kind of “draconian” punishment sought by prosecutors. Because the star has already served 13 months in jail since he was arrested, that sentence would see him released almost immediately: “It is time for Mr. Combs to go home.”

LETTERS OF SUPPORT – To help make that argument, Diddy’s lawyers filed dozens of letters from supporters, pleading with the judge to show lenience toward the rapper when he sentences him next month. They came from Diddy’s mother and kids, from ex-girlfriend Yung Miami and from an executive at hip-hop label Quality Control Music — among many others.

SUNO SUIT 2.0 – Separate from the Xania Monet situation, the major record labels filed an amended version of their copyright lawsuit against the AI music firm, adding new allegations that the company illegally “stream-ripped” songs from YouTube to train its models. That’s a hugely important new claim: In a separate such lawsuit against Anthropic, a federal judge ruled this summer that AI training itself is likely a legal “fair use” but that using pirated works to do it could lead to many billions in potential damages.

FTC, YEAH YOU KNOW ME – The Federal Trade Commission filed a lawsuit against Live Nation and Ticketmaster accusing the concert giants of advertising misleading ticket prices and allowing scalpers to buy up tickets and resell them at inflated prices. The case came months after the agency sued a ticket broker that allegedly used thousands of fake Ticketmaster accounts to buy and resell tickets to Taylor Swift concerts and other events — and two years after Live Nation was hit with a sweeping monopoly lawsuit by the U.S. Department of Justice.

HYPE VID SETTLEMENT – Mike Tyson settled a lawsuit claiming he illegally used the Jay-Z, DMX and Ja Rule song “Murdergram” in an Instagram video promoting his boxing match against Jake Paul. The case was filed by Ty Fyffe, a producer and co-writer of the 1998 track who claimed that Tyson had willfully infringed his copyrights by using the song in a training video ahead of his much-hyped fight with Paul.

LOSE YOUR … CASE? – Meta urged a federal judge to dismiss a lawsuit from Eight Mile Style, a music publisher that owns hundreds of Eminem songs, which claims the social media giant made “Lose Yourself” and other iconic tracks available to billions of users. In the motion, Facebook’s lawyers argued the case was “remarkably short on specifics” about actual infringing material: “Fanciful estimates are not a substitute for well-pleaded facts,” the company wrote.

NEVER MEANT TO CAUSE YOU ANY PAIN – The Prince estate asked a judge to dismiss a lawsuit by the late singer’s Purple Rain co-star Apollonia (Patty Kotero) that claims the estate is trying to “steal” her name, arguing it has no intention of forcing her to change her name — and has repeatedly told her as much. The filing did say, however, that Apollonia secured her own trademarks during “the chaotic period following Prince’s death.”

SEX TAPE LEAK CASE – Colombian pop star Beéle was hit with a lawsuit alleging invasion of privacy and sexual cyberharassment from ex-girlfriend Isabella Ladera, claiming he is responsible for leaking their sex tape. Beéle’s reps have denied that he was the source of the leak and said the singer is “also a victim,” but Ladera’s lawsuit placed the blame squarely on him: “Only two people had the videos, and Ladera had already erased them almost a year and a half before.”

MEGAN THEE PLAINTIFF – Lawyers for Megan Thee Stallion argued in court filings that the social media personality DJ Akademiks must reveal whether Tory Lanez sent him a confidential DNA testing report during the singer’s criminal case. The filings came amid discovery in a defamation case against Milagro Gramz, a gossip blogger and ardent online defender of Lanez.

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